If you want to survive in the game of sports betting, Best Football Prediction Tips in Easy then you have to use effective money management. I recommend that you follow these guidelines at all times.
- Only invest what you can realistically afford to lose. Live Soccer Prediction Today you have to remember that you really do not need to start with al a lot of money. I got started with only $100 dollars and I followed the system and my money has doubled over and over again over the course of years.
- Do not make your initial bet too high. Only invest 5% of your total bankroll for a flat betting system (in which you bet the same amount each time) and no more than 2% for a progressive system. You need to be patient here and allow your systems to do their slow and steady work.
- Increase your initial bets when your bankroll has increased by 25%. This will increase your earning power, Best Football Prediction Tips just remember to stick to the suggested percentages in #2.
- Remember to Diversify your portfolio. If you have a total bankroll of $1000 and 4 systems that you would like to use, then each system should be allotted $250 and you have to keep those amounts separate.
You have to be disciplined in your use of your systems and in your money management strategy. It can be difficult especially you are doing exceptionally well or if you are losing badly. You may be tempted to deviate from the systems or the money management guidelines in either of those situations. But do not, Soccer Score Predictions Today just remain diligent and the rewards are sure to follow.
Best Football Prediction Tips in Easy?
In a previous article I jokingly suggested I had put all my assets – my savings, the deeds to the farm, my kids’ Trust fund, and the proceeds from selling one of my kidneys – on a horse at Newbury. I showed this was potentially financial suicide, and an extreme example of bad money management.
I wrote that more often than not a losing punter will find himself saddled with a bunch of bad betting habits. It is these bad habits that have gotten him, and his betting bank, to where his is now – the Poor House.
To arrive at a change in fortune, and to start making consistent profits, the losing punter has to be prepared to make changes to the way in which he bets. In the previous article we talked about the cornerstone supporting my own personal betting strategy, and that is finding value in every bet you make.
You will only ever make a profit from betting if you consistently back horses at prices too high when compared to their actual chance of winning. This is exactly how bookmakers have made their money for generations – they consistently lay horses at prices too low compared to the actual chance of the horse winning. When punters continue to take these low prices day-in and day-out, it will only ever be the bookmakers who come out with a profit in the long run.
The second ‘bad habit’ I want to examine is the subject of inappropriate staking. What do I mean by staking that is not appropriate? Well, what I am driving at is placing bets that are generally too large in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Before I expand upon this, the concept of a betting bank is a side-issue in itself. You categorically MUST have a sum of money put aside for the sole purpose of betting. It scares me rigid when I hear of people simply ‘dipping’ into their current account to place a bet using their debit card.
If you do not have a separate account for your betting activities, you cannot keep records, and you will not be able to answer that simple question, “Am I making a profit, or a loss?”
It goes without saying, that betting involves a degree of risk, and you should never bet with money you cannot afford to lose.
Getting back to inappropriate staking, the idea of lumping all your money on one horse is an extreme example of over-staking. Of course, on the one occasion this strategy may pay off. We had friends round a few nights ago to play one of those Race Night DVDs. I was comfortably in front by studying the form before each race, and placing considered bets at what I considered to be value prices. As you might imagine, I had a suitably smug expression on my face as we came to the last race, and our friends were complaining I enjoyed a ‘professional advantage’.
My wife then decided to put every penny she had left on an 8/1 chance. The race turned out to be the ‘lucky last’ for my wife, and she walked away with the whole bank!
But seriously, continue with these tactics, and it will not be long before you lose everything.
Personally, I would never consider starting any betting campaign with a bankroll of less than 100 points. In other words, I will divide my bank by 100 to arrive at my unit stake. You can see that I will only ever be putting 1% of my bank at risk when I place a bet.
This is a very generalised approach, and you might argue that a little more consideration should be given to a punter’s typical strike rate. True, if someone has a strike rate of 50% then it is statistically highly unlikely that he will suffer a run of 100 losers to go bust. So, in this case you might be justified in operating a smaller bank. Bear in mind that when flipping a coin, it is by no means unusual to see 6 or 7 ‘heads’ in succession, and losing runs in double figures do occur.
Erring on the side of caution, you could foresee two such losing runs occurring twice in close succession. In which case, I hope you can see that even when considering a system which such a high strike rate, having a bank of well over 20 points now seems very sensible.
With my own Redd Racing betting service, we enjoy what I would consider to be quite a healthy strike rate. However, we have experienced a negative swing of some 60 points during one particular month a couple years back. The account recovered to make a profit by the end of the month, but it underlined the importance of having a bankroll large enough to absorb the losing runs that EVERYBODY has to endure from time to time.
Indeed, it would probably be better advice if I suggested members of my service had a bankroll of 150 or even 200 points in reserve.
Yet I often receive emails asking me whether it is OK to deposit £100 with Betfair and start with unit stakes of £10.
Betting with stakes too high in proportion to your bank normally comes out of a desire to make money quickly. I think we are all guilty of getting overly greedy sometimes, and unwilling to think a little more long-term. People are inclined to set themselves unrealistic profit targets, given the size of their betting bankroll. Having a bank of £100 and expecting to be able to make £100 per month is not realistic. Get-rich-quick does not exist.
Akin to the Tortoise and Hare story, let me give you an example of where what might initially seem like a very moderate return, actually gives surprising results over time.
If you started with £100 in your betting bank, and increased this bank by just one-half of one per cent every day, after just 6 months your account would have a balance of £244 due to the compounding effect. You could more than double your investment in 6 months with this seemingly small daily profit return. Take that to your bank or building society and see if they can come anywhere near such a deal!
Hopefully this demonstrates how ‘slowly but surely’ wins the race.
To summarize, my advice would be to set your unit stakes at one per cent, or even one half of one per cent, of your total betting bank. By striking only value bets, and when the odds are in your favour, your betting bank will grow. As your bank grows, so you can naturally increase the size of your unit stake to make more profit – but your bets will still be in proportion to your bank.
In the next part of this Sensible Money Management series, I will look at more bad habits that suck money from the accounts of losing punters.
Betting On Horse Racing Using A Dutching CalculatorWhy A Betting Exchange Can Offer You The Key To Successful Gambling…
Too many gamblers are still living in the ‘dark ages’ and will only ever place a bet with a traditional bookmaker. They either can’t be bothered to learn how the exchanges work or simply don’t realise the features and value that can be had when betting within an exchange environment.
Believe me, using a betting exchange is very easy, and if you are not already using at least one exchange you should join one immediately after reading this article…
I'm not saying that a betting exchange should be used for all your betting. There will still be occasions when a traditional bookmaker will offer more desirable odds than those that are available on the exchanges. However, in the majority of cases you will find better value on the exchanges and additionally there are other VERY IMPORTANT features that only the betting exchanges offer. More on this later…
So What Is A Betting Exchange?
Put very simply, betting exchanges are a secure place where members of the betting public can exchange bets with each other anonymously, at odds that they specify themselves. The exchange companies simply act as the 'middleman' and match peoples bets.
As there are no bookie margins to factor in, prices are very often more desirable. The betting exchange companies make their money by taking a commission payment on your winning bets. This is usually in the region of 3 - 5%, but even taking this into account, it’s very common to find better prices on the exchange.
The cumulative effect of better prices when combined with a good staking plan, can make the difference between you generating a healthy profit or a bad loss. Using an exchange does not mean you will automatically win more frequently! You still have to find good value winning bets yourself or via a professional tipster but it’s the effect of getting a better return on your winning bets that will boost your betting bank and protect you during losing streaks.
Most people use the betting exchanges on the internet, but you can also place bets on the telephone.
Betting Exchange Advantages
As well as regularly finding better prices when backing a selection, exchanges also give the gambler some other very important advantages over traditional bookmakers.
Some of the key advantages are:
1) The ability to LAY a selection if you think it will not win.
2) The ability to BACK or LAY a selection to be PLACED. (This is very different to the well know Each Way bet offered by bookies and can be very powerful).
3) Betting IN RUNNING on many events INCLUDING HORSE RACING. This can give you many advantages and opens the door to new methods that may secure you more profits.
4) If you are very successful, you will not have the exchange company threatening to shut your account down. A very important point !
5) The ability to TRADE on price movements in betting events to guarantee yourself a profit regardless of the result.
6) Arbitrage Opportunities. Bookie and exchange price discrepancies often allow you to take a NO RISK bet.
Those are some of the key benefits of using a betting exchange and I will dig deeper into these and explain how you can use them to your advantage in future betting articles.
For the remainder of this article, lets concentrate on point 1 above, LAYING a selection to Lose.
LAYING A Selection to Lose – A Major Advantage Of The Betting Exchanges
Probably the most important feature of a betting exchange is the ability to LAY a selection. But what does laying a selection mean?
Laying a selection is often referred to as 'Playing the role of a bookmaker'. Like a bookie, you offer a price against a selection / event happening (eg. a certain horse to win a race or a football match ending as a draw). You only do this if in your opinion there is a great chance that the horse won't win or the football match will not end as a draw. The betting exchanges simply match your lay bets with other customers who think the opposite of you (eg they think the horse will win or the match will end as a draw).
The odds that you offer determine how much money you will need to 'pay out' if the selection actually wins (just like the bookie does when you have a winning bet with them). So if you were to place a lay bet of £10 at 5.0 (4/1) against a selection, you would be liable to pay out £40 from your account if that selection won (The other punter gets their £10 back plus £40 profit). If however, the selection does lose you get to keep the £10 staked by the other punter (just like the bookies have done with all your losing bets all these years!). It's as simple as that.
Now, you might be thinking 'great, I'll simply lay all the rank outsiders and clean up'. STOP! Don't even go down this route. If you keep placing lay bets on selections trading with very high odds (eg 50/1), you will win regularly but when 1 of them comes first you will probably wipe out all your winnings and more! A single £10 lay bet at 50/1 would see you liable for paying out £500 should the selection win!
Therefore, I strongly recommend that you decide upon a sensible upper limit for lay odds and stick to it no matter what. Just think about how many favourites get turned over in horse races every day of the year that are perhaps available to lay at very short odds like 1.5 (1/2). Your liability on a £10 lay bet at these odds is only £5, or £50 on a £100 lay bet. I like to keep my lay bets at odds below 4.0 (3/1) but that's just my own personal choice but it gives you something to go on.
Flexible Odds / Placing an Order
The odds you offer obviously need to be realistic in order to be matched, but if you are not happy with the current price being requested by other punters you can simply place an 'order' in the exchange at your odds and hope that somebody eventually accepts your offer. (eg you may feel that the current price of 3.0 (2/1) is too high a price to lay a certain selection, so offer a lay bet at 2.75 (7/4) instead). If your lucky the price may well be matched. If the event starts without your lay bet being matched, your bet is simply cancelled so you gain/lose nothing.
Lay Betting might sound very confusing to the exchange newbie, but believe me it soon becomes very straightforward and you will find yourself laying selections much more frequently than you think. Let's be honest, it must be easier to pick a horse you feel will definitely lose in a average 12 runner race, than find the single winner!
Well that's it for part 1 of my betting exchange articles. In part 2, I will be explaining the Betting Exchange Place markets and how you can benefit from them.