Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – Discover the 7 Golden Winning Rules in Live Betting or Weekend Football Predictions Tips ?
The Internet and live telecasting of matches have made live betting immensely popular. The main difference between live bets and normal bets is the punters can gauge the motivation factor of how the players will perform or the playing strategy Weekend Football Predictions Tips in [Keyword]– whether there will be three strikers or ‘a bus of defending players parked in front of their goalmouth’.
The greatest advantage in live betting is the punters have exactly the same information as the bookmakers as the matches are being played. There is also a chance for the punters to bet at better odds if the opening odds are too low. The punters can observe the development of the game and make decisions as the match unfolds. This gives the punters an opportunity to make a ‘U-turn’ and reverse a bet when the situation necessitates.
Live betting requires great discipline and patience. Emotion can run very high during a match and your decision can be just a click on the optical mouse. The following 7 golden winning rules must not be overlooked :
7. CUT LOSS WHEN NECESSARY The typical mindset of most punters is to hang on till the last minute, hoping and praying that their team will not let them down.Be decisive and cut your loss as soon as you realise the match is not flowing the way you have expected. Such decisiveness can save you bigger losses in the end.
CONCLUSIONIn live betting, you must judge each situation on its own merits. Do not allow emotion to interfere with your judgement. This will only compel logic to fly out of the window, along with your cash.
Interesting Facts About Weekend Football Predictions Tips in South Africa:
About Weekend Football Predictions Tips in South Africa:Introduction
In article one, I introduced you to the Betting Exchange concept and explained the basics of LAY Betting (Lay to Lose). Now in this article, I'm going to introduce you to another unique and powerful feature of the betting exchanges, the Place Markets.
What Are Betting Exchange Place Markets?
Place markets are as the name suggests, markets which allow you to bet on a selection to be 'placed'. Eg. a horse to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a 8 runner or larger field.
Now, the first and most important thing to highlight here is that these place markets are completely different to the well known Each Way (EW) betting markets offered by traditional bookmakers. The Each Way bet is in fact 2 bets of equal stakes.
The 1st stake is on the selection to win and the 2nd is on it to be placed. So a £10 EW bet will cost you £20 in total.
A £10 place bet on a Betting Exchange is a single bet and therefore will only cost you £10. If your selection finishes in a place, you collect your winnings and smile.
Think about it for a minute. How many times have you been certain that a horse will be placed, but you have not been confident that it will win...
Traditional Each Way Betting
Take the following example. A horse named 'Im gonna be placed' that is available to back with traditional bookmakers at 4/1 (5.0). Your very confident that it will finish in the top 3 in a 10 runner field.
With a traditional bookmaker, your options are:
1) Take a chance on it winning and place a win single on it. E.g. £10 at 4/1
2) Place an EW bet on it. E.g. £10 EW at 4/1 (5.0). Total stakes £20. The bookies will pay you 1/5 odds on the place element of this E/W bet based on their standard EW rules. On our horse which is available to back at 5.0 this equates to 1.8
Now, the only time the above race will be profitable for you is if the horse actually wins. In both cases you would make a very nice profit if it did. For option 1 you would win £40 profit and for option 2, £48 profit.
BUT, if as you suspected the horse only finishes placed in 2nd or 3rd, you actually lose money in both cases. With option 1 you obviously lose all your stake money so are down £10. With option 2, you win £8 on the Place side of the EW bet but still lose £2 overall as the win part of the bet was a losing one.
Enter The Betting Exchange Place Markets
Using the above example and depending upon the prices of the other horses in the race, you would probably see the Betting Exchanges offering odds of around 1.60 - 2.00 (evens) on this horse being placed. You can therefore put your £10 PLACE bet on at say 1.8 and collect £8 profit (minus commission) as long as the horse finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Only if the horse finishes outside of the top 3 do you lose your £10 stake.
I'm sure this has got you thinking and you can probably see the power in this straight away!
When combined with a good staking plan and a sensible selection process, it can be common to have very long winning streaks when backing horses to be placed on the betting exchanges. These longer winning streaks more than make up for the relatively short prices that are offered on selections to be placed.
Place Market Important Notes
A few important things to note about place markets:
1) Unlike the betting exchange win markets, Place markets DO NOT go "In-Running" when the race starts but this is true of the traditional E/W bets offered by bookies as well.
2) If a race is planned as a 8 runner or more event but a number of horses become non-runners leaving less than 8 runners, the betting exchanges still offer odds on 3 places. This is different to bookmakers who in such cases adjust their odds on the place payment from 1/5 to 1/4 of the win odds BUT they only pay out on 2 places. If a 5,6 or 7 runner field is shortened to less than 5 runners, the betting exchanges will still offer place markets and payout if the horse finishes 1st or 2nd.
3) You can make up the equivalent of an E/W bet on the betting exchanges by placing a bet on the win market and a separate bet on the place market. Depending upon the type of race and the form of the market, you will often find that this offers more value in terms of odds than an E/W bet with a bookmaker.
Backing Or Laying On The Place Markets
As explained in article 1, the ability to Lay a selection is perhaps the most important feature of the betting exchanges. You now have the ability to Lay selections to be placed. In other words, if you have a valid reason to believe that a selection will not even finish in a place, Lay it to Lose on a betting exchange. The real beauty of laying on the place markets, is that the odds are always much lower than the outright win odds so your lay liabilities are much lower.
Trading On The Place Markets
As the place market prices are much lower than the outright win market prices, they also offer a great place to learn the skill of TRADING without much risk to your balance! Betting Exchange trading is simply the process of betting on price movements for guaranteed profits. E.g. Back a horse at 4.0 and then Lay it later at 3.0 for a no risk bet or guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome!
Betting exchange trading will be covered in detail in a future betting article.
Place markets should be used as part of your betting armory. They offer you the chance to make money frequently with long winning streaks being very common. This helps to build your confidence as well as your betting bank!
Bookie Each Way bets are not always poor bets but in the vast majority of races, the odds are stacked firmly in the favour of the bookmakers. They simply love punters taking EW bets on these races as they know its their bread and butter. A small proportion of races where the market is formed in a certain way do offer the punter very good E/W value but that's for a different day...
Well that's it for part 2 of my betting exchange articles. In part 3, I will be explaining the Betting Exchange In-Running markets.
Weekend Football Predictions Tips in South Africa
In a previous article I jokingly suggested I had put all my assets my savings, the deeds to the farm, my kids Trust fund, and the proceeds from selling one of my kidneys on a horse at Newbury. I showed this was potentially financial suicide, and an extreme example of bad money management.
I wrote that more often than not a losing punter will find himself saddled with a bunch of bad betting habits. It is these bad habits that have gotten him, and his betting bank, to where his is now the Poor House.
To arrive at a change in fortune, and to start making consistent profits, the losing punter has to be prepared to make changes to the way in which he bets. In the previous article we talked about the cornerstone supporting my own personal betting strategy, and that is finding value in every bet you make.
You will only ever make a profit from betting if you consistently back horses at prices too high when compared to their actual chance of winning. This is exactly how bookmakers have made their money for generations they consistently lay horses at prices too low compared to the actual chance of the horse winning. When punters continue to take these low prices day-in and day-out, it will only ever be the bookmakers who come out with a profit in the long run.
The second bad habit I want to examine is the subject of inappropriate staking. What do I mean by staking that is not appropriate? Well, what I am driving at is placing bets that are generally too large in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Before I expand upon this, the concept of a betting bank is a side-issue in itself. You categorically MUST have a sum of money put aside for the sole purpose of betting. It scares me rigid when I hear of people simply dipping into their current account to place a bet using their debit card.
If you do not have a separate account for your betting activities, you cannot keep records, and you will not be able to answer that simple question, Am I making a profit, or a loss?
It goes without saying, that betting involves a degree of risk, and you should never bet with money you cannot afford to lose.
Getting back to inappropriate staking, the idea of lumping all your money on one horse is an extreme example of over-staking. Of course, on the one occasion this strategy may pay off. We had friends round a few nights ago to play one of those Race Night DVDs. I was comfortably in front by studying the form before each race, and placing considered bets at what I considered to be value prices. As you might imagine, I had a suitably smug expression on my face as we came to the last race, and our friends were complaining I enjoyed a professional advantage.
My wife then decided to put every penny she had left on an 8/1 chance. The race turned out to be the lucky last for my wife, and she walked away with the whole bank!
But seriously, continue with these tactics, and it will not be long before you lose everything.
Personally, I would never consider starting any betting campaign with a bankroll of less than 100 points. In other words, I will divide my bank by 100 to arrive at my unit stake. You can see that I will only ever be putting 1% of my bank at risk when I place a bet.
This is a very generalised approach, and you might argue that a little more consideration should be given to a punters typical strike rate. True, if someone has a strike rate of 50% then it is statistically highly unlikely that he will suffer a run of 100 losers to go bust. So, in this case you might be justified in operating a smaller bank. Bear in mind that when flipping a coin, it is by no means unusual to see 6 or 7 heads in succession, and losing runs in double figures do occur.
Erring on the side of caution, you could foresee two such losing runs occurring twice in close succession. In which case, I hope you can see that even when considering a system which such a high strike rate, having a bank of well over 20 points now seems very sensible.
With my own Redd Racing betting service, we enjoy what I would consider to be quite a healthy strike rate. However, we have experienced a negative swing of some 60 points during one particular month a couple years back. The account recovered to make a profit by the end of the month, but it underlined the importance of having a bankroll large enough to absorb the losing runs that EVERYBODY has to endure from time to time.
Indeed, it would probably be better advice if I suggested members of my service had a bankroll of 150 or even 200 points in reserve.
Yet I often receive emails asking me whether it is OK to deposit £100 with Betfair and start with unit stakes of £10.
Betting with stakes too high in proportion to your bank normally comes out of a desire to make money quickly. I think we are all guilty of getting overly greedy sometimes, and unwilling to think a little more long-term. People are inclined to set themselves unrealistic profit targets, given the size of their betting bankroll. Having a bank of £100 and expecting to be able to make £100 per month is not realistic. Get-rich-quick does not exist.
Akin to the Tortoise and Hare story, let me give you an example of where what might initially seem like a very moderate return, actually gives surprising results over time.
If you started with £100 in your betting bank, and increased this bank by just one-half of one per cent every day, after just 6 months your account would have a balance of £244 due to the compounding effect. You could more than double your investment in 6 months with this seemingly small daily profit return. Take that to your bank or building society and see if they can come anywhere near such a deal!
Hopefully this demonstrates how slowly but surely wins the race.
To summarize, my advice would be to set your unit stakes at one per cent, or even one half of one per cent, of your total betting bank. By striking only value bets, and when the odds are in your favour, your betting bank will grow. As your bank grows, so you can naturally increase the size of your unit stake to make more profit but your bets will still be in proportion to your bank.
In the next part of this Sensible Money Management series, I will look at more bad habits that suck money from the accounts of losing punters.
Betting On The Tigers This Weekend Gets Tricky!Why A Betting Exchange Can Offer You The Key To Successful Gambling
Too many gamblers are still living in the dark ages and will only ever place a bet with a traditional bookmaker. They either cant be bothered to learn how the exchanges work or simply dont realise the features and value that can be had when betting within an exchange environment.
Believe me, using a betting exchange is very easy, and if you are not already using at least one exchange you should join one immediately after reading this article
I'm not saying that a betting exchange should be used for all your betting. There will still be occasions when a traditional bookmaker will offer more desirable odds than those that are available on the exchanges. However, in the majority of cases you will find better value on the exchanges and additionally there are other VERY IMPORTANT features that only the betting exchanges offer. More on this later
So What Is A Betting Exchange?
Put very simply, betting exchanges are a secure place where members of the betting public can exchange bets with each other anonymously, at odds that they specify themselves. The exchange companies simply act as the 'middleman' and match peoples bets.
As there are no bookie margins to factor in, prices are very often more desirable. The betting exchange companies make their money by taking a commission payment on your winning bets. This is usually in the region of 3 - 5%, but even taking this into account, its very common to find better prices on the exchange.
The cumulative effect of better prices when combined with a good staking plan, can make the difference between you generating a healthy profit or a bad loss. Using an exchange does not mean you will automatically win more frequently! You still have to find good value winning bets yourself or via a professional tipster but its the effect of getting a better return on your winning bets that will boost your betting bank and protect you during losing streaks.
Most people use the betting exchanges on the internet, but you can also place bets on the telephone.
Betting Exchange Advantages
As well as regularly finding better prices when backing a selection, exchanges also give the gambler some other very important advantages over traditional bookmakers.
Some of the key advantages are:
1) The ability to LAY a selection if you think it will not win.
2) The ability to BACK or LAY a selection to be PLACED. (This is very different to the well know Each Way bet offered by bookies and can be very powerful).
3) Betting IN RUNNING on many events INCLUDING HORSE RACING. This can give you many advantages and opens the door to new methods that may secure you more profits.
4) If you are very successful, you will not have the exchange company threatening to shut your account down. A very important point !
5) The ability to TRADE on price movements in betting events to guarantee yourself a profit regardless of the result.
6) Arbitrage Opportunities. Bookie and exchange price discrepancies often allow you to take a NO RISK bet.
Those are some of the key benefits of using a betting exchange and I will dig deeper into these and explain how you can use them to your advantage in future betting articles.
For the remainder of this article, lets concentrate on point 1 above, LAYING a selection to Lose.
LAYING A Selection to Lose A Major Advantage Of The Betting Exchanges
Probably the most important feature of a betting exchange is the ability to LAY a selection. But what does laying a selection mean?
Laying a selection is often referred to as 'Playing the role of a bookmaker'. Like a bookie, you offer a price against a selection / event happening (eg. a certain horse to win a race or a football match ending as a draw). You only do this if in your opinion there is a great chance that the horse won't win or the football match will not end as a draw. The betting exchanges simply match your lay bets with other customers who think the opposite of you (eg they think the horse will win or the match will end as a draw).
The odds that you offer determine how much money you will need to 'pay out' if the selection actually wins (just like the bookie does when you have a winning bet with them). So if you were to place a lay bet of £10 at 5.0 (4/1) against a selection, you would be liable to pay out £40 from your account if that selection won (The other punter gets their £10 back plus £40 profit). If however, the selection does lose you get to keep the £10 staked by the other punter (just like the bookies have done with all your losing bets all these years!). It's as simple as that.
Now, you might be thinking 'great, I'll simply lay all the rank outsiders and clean up'. STOP! Don't even go down this route. If you keep placing lay bets on selections trading with very high odds (eg 50/1), you will win regularly but when 1 of them comes first you will probably wipe out all your winnings and more! A single £10 lay bet at 50/1 would see you liable for paying out £500 should the selection win!
Therefore, I strongly recommend that you decide upon a sensible upper limit for lay odds and stick to it no matter what. Just think about how many favourites get turned over in horse races every day of the year that are perhaps available to lay at very short odds like 1.5 (1/2). Your liability on a £10 lay bet at these odds is only £5, or £50 on a £100 lay bet. I like to keep my lay bets at odds below 4.0 (3/1) but that's just my own personal choice but it gives you something to go on.
Flexible Odds / Placing an Order
The odds you offer obviously need to be realistic in order to be matched, but if you are not happy with the current price being requested by other punters you can simply place an 'order' in the exchange at your odds and hope that somebody eventually accepts your offer. (eg you may feel that the current price of 3.0 (2/1) is too high a price to lay a certain selection, so offer a lay bet at 2.75 (7/4) instead). If your lucky the price may well be matched. If the event starts without your lay bet being matched, your bet is simply cancelled so you gain/lose nothing.
Lay Betting might sound very confusing to the exchange newbie, but believe me it soon becomes very straightforward and you will find yourself laying selections much more frequently than you think. Let's be honest, it must be easier to pick a horse you feel will definitely lose in a average 12 runner race, than find the single winner!
Well that's it for part 1 of my betting exchange articles. In part 2, I will be explaining the Betting Exchange Place markets and how you can benefit from them.